欧元区经济展望（英）.docx

EUROPEANCENTRALBANKEUROSYSTEMTheeuroareaoutlookSeminarattheEconomicandSocialResearchInstitute,Dublin20December2023PhilipR.LaneMemberoftheExecutiveBoardDecemberRubric2023Eurosystemstaffprojections:assumptions2023December2023Revisionsvs.September2023202420252026202320242025Oilprice(levelinUSD)84.080.176.573.61.6-2.1-1.7Oilprice(levelineuro)77.873.970.667.92.4-1.2-0.8Naturalgasprice(EUR/MWh)41.547.444.236.9-3.2-12.6-6.9Wholesaleelectricityprice(EUR/MWh)105.0116.5110.897.7-8.8-18.3-10.1Effectiveexchangerate(index1999Q1=100)121.9123.5123.5123.5-0.9-1.1-1.1USDperEUR(level)1.081.081.081.08-0.69-0.88-0.883-monthinterestrate(%p.a.)3.43.62.82.70.0-0.1-0.310-yearbondyield(%p.a.)3.23.23.33.50.0-0.10.0Stockprice(level)451455458459-0.7-0.9-1.3Note:Revisionsareexpressedaspercentagesforlevelsandpercentagepointsforinterestratesandbondyields.DecemberRubric2023Eurosystemstaffprojections:baseline2023December2023(annualpercentagechanges)2026Revisionsvs.September2023(percentagepoints)20242025202320242025HICP5.42.72.11.9-0.2-0.50.0HICPexcl.energyandfood5.02.72.32.1-0.1-0.20.1Compensationperemployee5.34.63.83.30.00.30.0Unitlabourcosts6.14.12.62.00.30.60.2RealGDP0.60.81.51.5-0.1-0.20.0Privateconsumption0.51.41.61.40.2-0.20.0Governmentconsumption0.11.11.31.20.20.0-0.1Totalinvestment1.30.41.82.1-0.40.80.4Unemploymentrate(%oflabourforce)6.56.66.56.40.0-0.1-0.2December2023(Q4-on-Q4percentagechanges)23Q424Q425Q426Q4Revisionsvs.September2023(percentagepoints)23Q424Q425Q4HICP2.82.62.01.9-0.5-0.30.1HICPexcl.energyandfood3.82.72.12.1-0.30.20.0Compensationperemployee4.74.63.53.10.00.10.4Unitlabourcosts5.53.62.31.90.50.40.5RealGDP0.31.31.51.5-0.2-0.10.0Privateconsumption0.61.81.41.40.1-0.10.0Governmentconsumption-0.31.91.01.30.10.4-0.3Totalinvestment1.20.42.22.0-0.31.2-0.1Unemploymentrate(%oflabourforce)6.56.66.56.30.0-0.1-0.2Note:Revisionscalculatedbasedonroundedfigures.PrivateRubricconsumptionGoods and servicesconsumption(index: 2019= 100)Demand expectations(standardised percentage balances)Outlookforprivateconsumption(annualpercentagechanges,percentagepointcontributions)Contact-intensive services Services Retail trade Major purchasesConsumer prices SavingsDisposable incomeReal private consumption10 -KTotalDurablesmbNon-durables102IlSerViCeS-523Q123Q223Q3Sources:Eurostat,DG-ECFINandECBcalculations.Notes:ThecountrycoverageforthefiguresinQ32023is95%.Non-durablegdsincludesemi-durableones.1.atestobservation:Q32023.Jan-23Apr-23Jl-23NovOcl23Sources:Eurostat,DG-ECFINandECBcalculations.Notes:Dataarestandardisedoverpre-COVIDperiod.Thechartshowsdemandexpectationsoffirmsovernext3months.1.atestobservation:November2023.-102023202420252026Source:December2023Eurosystemstaffprojections.Note:ConsumerpricesrefertotheHICPinflation.InvestmentRubricOutlook for investmentand unit profits(annual percentage changes)Housinginvestment(quarter-on-quarterpercentagechanges,quarterlyaverageofdiffusionindex)Businessinvestment(quarter-on-quarterpercentagechanges,deviationfrommean)-1-2InvestmentUnitprofits22Q122Q323Q123Q323Q422Q122Q323Q123Q323Q42023202420252026Source: December 2023 Eurosystem staff projections.Sources:Eurostat,S&PGlobalandDG-ECFIN.Note:TheEuropeanCommission(EC)indicatorisstandardisedandrescaledtohavethesamemeanandstandarddeviationasthePurchasingManagersIndex(PMI).1.atestobservations:Q32023forhousinginvestment:November2023forPMIandEC.Sources:Eurostat,S&PGlobalandDG-ECFIN.Notes:BusinessinvestmentexcludesIrishintellectualproperlyproducts(IPP).TheEuropeanCommission(EC)seriesistheindustrialconfidenceindicatorforcapitalgoods.1.atestobservations:Q32023forinvestment;November2023forPMIandEC.PMI employment(diffusion index)1.abourRubricmarketsEmploymentandunemploymentrate(quarter-on-quarterpercentagechanges,percentagesofthelabourforce)EmploymentUnemployment(rhs)CompositeConstructionManufacturingServicesJan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Dec-2323Q123Q223Q323Q4202420252026Sources:Eurostat.December2023EurosystemstaffprojectionsandECBcalculations.Note:Solidbarsarequarterlydata(andprojectionsforQ42023),shadedbarsareannualprojections.1.atestobservations:Q32023foremploymentandOctober2023forunemploymentrate.Theverticallineindicatesthebeginningoftheprojections.Source:S&PGlobal.1.atestobservation:December2023fo