摩根士丹利+全球银行和资产管理公司：进入伟大的未知-英_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_d.docx

BLUEPAPERNovember19,20231000PMGMTGlobalBanks&AssetManagersIntotheGreatUnknownTwoforceswilldriveWholesaleBankstoadaptinthenextcycle:1)theendoflowerforlongerrates,and2)potentiallydivergingcapitalstandardsbetweentheUSandotherjurisdictions,benefittingnon-banksandbanksoutsidetheUS.Ourframeworkassessesthewiderangeofpotentialoutcomes.OlivetWyman»sagloballeaderinmanagementconsultingFormoremformatQ,visitww.WyrnarOliverWymanisnotauthorizedo<regulatedbythePRAQfIheFCAandisnotprovidinginvestmentadveeOlwerWymanauthorsatenotresearch8a1ystsandareneitherFOAnorFNRAregisteredOhverWymanauthorshaveOntycontributedtherexpertiseonbusinessstrategyMIhlnthereportOhVCrWymansviewsareclearlydelineatedThesecu11es11dvaluationsectionsofthisIBpOrlaretheWOrkofMorganStanleyonlyandnotOliverWymanFordisclcsuesspecificallypertainingtoOverWyman,pleaseseetheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendOfrhlSreportOhvefWymanisagloballeaderinmanagementconsultingRJrmorenfo<nmio,MSftVMWQHVefwymancomOliverWymamsnotautlwzedregulatedbythePRAortheFCAandisnotprovidingInVeSInWNadviceOliverWymanauthorsarenotresearchanalysisandareneitherFCAnorFINRAregistaed.OliverWymanauthorshaveonlycclbtted!heirexpanseonbusinessstrategy*vrthinthe刖口On5”:门Wyman'sviewsaecaryTheMCJMaSandalua!csect<onsofthis?POrtareUwWCdQfMorganStanleyonlyandnotOlivrWymanFordisclosuresspecificallypeilqiningIoOhverWyman,pleaseseetheDisclosureSectionlocatedaftheendofthisreportMorganStanleydeesandseeks!odobusmesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearchAsaesuII.nvestrsshouldbeawathatthefirmmayIiaveHconflictofImefeSN府"加dfcttheObjectivrtyofMorganStanleyResearchInvestorsshouldco11sie<,MorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorGmakingIheirnvestmenidecision.ForanalystCeftrficationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.Authors-MorganStanleyMichaelJ.Cyprys,CFA1CPA1EQUITYANALYST+12127617619MichaeLCyprysBetsyL.Graseck,CFA1EQUITYANALYST+12127618473Betsy.GraseckGiuliaAuroraMiottolCFA2EQUITYANALYST+4420742553UGiulia.Aurora.MiottomorganstanleY.comConneLlJ.Schmitz1RESEARCHASSOCIATE+12127616252ConnelLSchmitzmorgan$RyanKenny,CFA1EQUITYANALYST+12127611664RyanKennymorganstanLMananGosalia1EQUITYANALYST+12127614092Manan.GosaUaAlvaroSerrano3EQUITYANALYST+442074256942Alvaro.SerranoVishalShah2EQUITYANALYST+442076772743Vish3l.Shah6BruceHamilton2EQUITYANALYST+442074257597Bruce.Hamilton1 MorganStanley&CoILC2 MOrganStanley&Co.InternationalPLC*3 MorganStanleyEuropeS.E.*OliverWymanDyhnWalshPartner+16463648676Dylan.WalshRonanO1KellyPartner+447733156894RonanOKellyMingMinLeePartner+16463648693MingMin.LeeChristopherRigbyPartner+447751234684Chrlstopher.RigbyMariyaRosbergPartner+16463648448Mariya.RosbergElisaHainingPrincipal+447759021920Elisa.HainingSamMaeglinAssociate+16468314925Sam.MaeglinSimoneMarschallAssociate+447385423823Simone.MarschallNoaBlaneDamelinConsultant+447702954885Noa.BlaneDamelinContributorsMorganStanleyStephanieMa1RESEARCHASSOCIATEStephanie.MaChumaNwankolCFA1RESEARCHASSOCIATEChuma.NwankwoMarinaMassuti-RESEARCHASSOCIATEMarina.MassutiAndreiStadniklFIAAEQUITYANALYSTAndrei.StadnikMiaNagasakaEQUITYANALYSTMia.NagasakaNickLordEQUITYANALYSTNick.LordRichardXulCFA Morgan Stanley & Co LlC Morgan Stanley & Co Intemittonal PLC4 Motgan Stanley Australia Unuled+ Morgan Stanley MUG Securities Co., UD,* Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) PTE.+ Morgan Stanley Asia LimitedfEQUITYANALYSTRichard.XuChiyaoHuangEQUITYANALYSTChiyao.HuangOliverWymanHuwvanSteenisViceChairHuw.VanSteenisNikolaiDienerowitzPartnerNikolaLDienerowitz(三)OliverwymancomMichaelMagumbeSeniorResearchAnalystMichael.Magumbe()oliverwyman.coJulianAdLerEngagementManagerJulian.AdlerJuliaHillenbrandAssociateJulia.HillenbrandContents5Preface7 JointExecutiveSummary8 MorganStanleyExecutiveSummary13OurBlueP叩erin10Charts18IndustryOutlook22USCapitalRulesandValueShifts27ManagementActions32Conclusion36GlobalInvestmentBanks:InvestmentImplicationsIfEndgameImplementedasProposed37Basel3EndgameAdaptationScenarioAnalysisbyBank47EuropeanBankstoTakeShareIfEndgameImplementeda$Proposed53 APACBanksSeeLessCapitalPressureFromNewRules54 WhatAreBanksSayingontheFinalizationofBasel3?56 HowOurGlobalBankCoverageIsPositionedfortheNextFewYears58Non-BankAssetManagers:InvestmentImplicationsIfEndg