戴德梁行+投资者调查及趋势报告：美国老年人生活及护理-英_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_.docx

INVESTORSURVEYANDTRENDSREPORTU.S.SENIORLIVING&CARENOVEMBER2023PhotoprovidedbyNationalDevelopmentInthisreportOlKeyFindings02PropertyMarkets03CapitalMarkets04ValuationIndex05InvestorSurveyResults06SeniorsHousingOutlook/UlKEYFINDINGS U.S.seniorshousingpropertymarketfundamentalscontinuetoimprove.Stabilizedoccupancytrendedupwardovertheprior10quarters,reaching86%,asrentgrowthremainedintactat5%throughthethirdquarterof2023.Cushman&Wakefieldexpectstoseecontinuedimprovementinpropertymarketfundamentals. Northeastmarketsareexpectedtoshowthestrongestnear-termperformance.MarketsintheSouthwestandSoutheastareexpectedtoexperiencedownwardpressureonoccupancyandrentgrowthintheneartermasnewsupplyisintroduced. Seculartailwindsarestrongerthanever,asconstructionstartstoslowtothelowestlevelssincetheGreatFinancialCrisis(GFC).Tomeetdemandatpeaklevels,supplygrowthmustincreaseby35,(XX)unitsperyear,beginningtoday. Affordabilityremainsunsolved.Withthenumberofmiddle-incomeseniorsprojectedtodoubleby2029,overhalfofthissegmentwillnothaveadequatefinancestoaffordtraditionalassistedliving. Operatorswilllearntoscale,andpartnershipsbetweenoperatingcompany(OpCo)andpropertycompany(PropCo)willevolve.Accelerationoftrendsandinnovationsintechnology;integratedcareandcaredeliverymodels;infrastructure;anddesignwithgreaterbranddiversificationarebeginningtoemerge. Thecostofdebtisstressingshort-termvaluations,withseniorlivingtransactionvolumedown51%year-over-year(YOY)zandthepriceperUn什，at$111,000,downnearly54%frompeakpricing.MostownersW计hwell-locatedpropertiesandhealthyoperatingperformanceareoptingnottosellduetothemarketdislocation.Skillednursingvolumewasdownonly17%,withthepriceperbedreachinganall-timehighof$109,500inthefirsthalfof2023.,Impendingloanmaturitiestotaling$16billion-expectedwithinthecoming24months,alongwithfund-lifeexpirations,willcatalyzetransactionactivitywithincreasedinvestmentsfromthosewhoarewellcapitalizedandlessreliantonleverage. Cushman&Wakefield'svaluationindexreportson$32billioninaggregatethird-partyvaluationscompletedoverthepast12months.Same-storeindicesextractedfromthisdatasetindicateaYOYincreaseincapitalizationratesforseniorliving,rangingfrom75to125basispoints(bps),withvaluationsdecliningby12%to18%onaverage. Ofthemorethan90peoplewhoparticipatedinCushman&WakefieId1Sinvestorsurvey,68%expecttoseeacontinuedincreaseincapitalizationratesoverthenext12months,withdebtmarketliquiditybeingthetopconcernof51%oftherespondents. Mostinvestors(49%)aretargetingcore-plusinvestmentstrategies,followedbyassistedlivingat33%andactiveadultat23%.Nearly34%ofrespondentsarefocusedonopportunisticordistressedinvestmentstrategies. Marketparticipantsareunderwritingnegativeleverage:uptooneyearfor44%ofrespondentsanduptotwoyearsfor31%ofrespondents.Still,19%ofsurveyrespondentsarenotwillingtounderwritenegativeleverageaspartoftheirinvestmentstrategy.Someinvestorsareelectingtopurchaseonanunleveredbasisasdebttermsforopportunisticbuysaredilutivetoreturns. Basispointspreadsbetweenthegoingincapitalizationrate,thediscountrateandterminalcapitalizationratehavecompressed,indicatingthatmarketparticipantsareexpectingtoseeimprovementinthecurrentinterestrateclimateoverafive-to10-yearholdingperiod. Environmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)considerationscontinuetogainnotorietyintheseniorshousingandcaresector,with59%ofsurveyrespondentsviewingESGinitiativesasbeingapositiveattribute,butonly9%willingtoprovideapremiumtopricingwhereESGisprevalent.UZPROPERTYMARKETSPRIMARY MARKETSInventory GrowthAbsorption Stabilized OccupancyOCCUPANCYSeniorshousingperformancecontinuestoacceleratewithstabilizedoccupancytrendingupwardforthetenthconsecutivequarter.TheNationalInvestmentCenterforSeniorsHousing&Care(NIC)reportedstabilizedoccupancyat86%forprimarymarketsand87%forsecondarymarketsforthethirdquarterof2023.Thoughtrendinginapositivedirection,theselevelsremainwellbelowpre-pandemicaveragesof90%and90.2%,respectively.ASKINGRENTALTRENDSTherateofannualrentgrowthreachedanall-timehighinthesecondquarterof2023,at5.9%inprimarymarketsand5.9%insecondarymarkets,whichtaperedslightlyinthethirdquarterto5.4%and5.6%respectively.Assistedlivingmarkedthehighestrentgrowthat6.4%,withrentgrowthforindependentlivingaveraging5.2%.RecentvaluationsconductedbyCushman&Wakefieldhaveidentifiedannualrentgrowthinthe7%to9%rangeinkeymarketsthroughouttheU.S.S±UJ。,JoqEn10,OOO5,00-5,000MHMBJ*kMmULllLbfeMlbfi-10,000AQUOdnOOOPaZ三qasCccccc§8-§8-ZoZoeLoo-Oeoe00088-60Nco6-020-8一。Com58-zo09一。臂9三CxlO-SON0COSLOSOLFoeoeFOmL8oeggo0Z-OZ:0coZ-c-Source:Cushmon&VVakefieJdResearch.NICMAP¼sronzQ32023SECONDARYMARKETSs*uJQ-lquJN£0306HOSoSOeoe0coOzo30L6oeco6oe0L8一OeoeogNONOCOZOCSI0L9oNg9-0oLSLooeS-OSeLq5eoeg5eoe20aeoNOcodo-ABSORPTIONAbsorptionhasoutpacedinventorygrowthfornineconsecutiveq