剑桥风险研究中心-消费部门的风险管理（英）_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx

CambridgeCaseStudySeriesRISKMANAGEMENTFORTHECONSUMERSECTORSCentreforRkkStudiesN1VERSITYFCAMBRIDGEd*Rine¼vhnolirmAcknowledgementsCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesgratefullyacknowledgestheInstituteofRiskManagementforsupportingtheresearcheffortssummarisedinthisreport.WealsogratefullyacknowledgethesupportreceivedforthistrackofresearchfromAIG,Citi,Lloyd,s,andWillisTowersWatson.TheCentreisgratefulfortheexpertiseprovidedbyourresearchteam,collaborators,andsubjectmatterspecialists.AnymisinterpretationinuseoftheadviceprovidedisentirelytheresponsibilityoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.PaperCitation:CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies,2019.RiskManagementfortheConsumerSectors.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesattheUniversityofCambridgeJudgeBusinessSchool,incollaborationwithInstituteofRiskManagement,orTuvesonzM;Ralph,D;Carpenter,O;CopiczJ;Deng,K.,Coburn,A.W.,2019.RiskManagementfortheConsumerSectors.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesattheUniversityofCambridgeJudgeBusinessSchool,incollaborationwithInstituteofRiskManagement.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesResearchTeamDrMichelleTuveson,Chairman&ExecutiveDirectorProfessorDanielRalph,AcademicDirectorDrAndrewCoburn,ChiefScientistCambridge Centre for Risk StudiesUniversity of Cambridge Judge Business SchoolTrumpington StreetCambridge CB2 IAG United Kingdomenauiries.riskibs.cam.ac.ukWebsite and Research PlatformWWWjbS.cam.ac.uk/faculty-research/CentresriskInstitute of Risk ManagementSackville House143 -149 Fenchurch StreetLondonEC3M 6BNUnited KingdomWebsitewww.theirm.orHSimonRufflezDirectorofResearchandInnovationJenniferCopic,ProjectManagerandLiabilityResearchLeadDrAndySkelton,LeadModellerKenDeng,LeadFinancialRiskResearchOIiverCarpenter,LeadEnvironmentalRiskResearchDrJenniferDaffron,LeadTechnologyRiskResearchTamaraEvan,LeadGeopoliticalRiskResearchJamesBourdeau,GeopoliticalRiskResearchPhilCameron,CyberRiskResearchTimothyDouglas,RiskModellerTimothySummers,SeniorDataScientistWilliamTurner,DataScientistDrPaulBurgess,SeniorAdvisorforRiskManagementJayneTooke,CommunicationsAssistantConsultantforfloodscenarioanalysis:JamesPollardTheviewscontainedinthisreportareentirelythoseoftheresearchteamoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies,anddonotimplyanyendorsementoftheseviewsbytheorganisationssupportingtheresearch,ororconsultantsandcollaborators.TheresultsoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesresearchpresentedinthisreportareforinformationpurposesonly.Thisreportisnotintendedtoprovideasufficientbasisonwhichtomakeaninvestmentdecision.TheCentreisnotliableforanylossordamagearisingfromitsuse.AnycommercialusewillrequirealicenseagreementwiththeCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.Copyright©2019byCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.ContentsAbouttheIntstituteofRiskManagement(IRM)4ForewordfromtheIRM5ExecutiveSummary6Section 1: Introduction8AFictionalisedCompanyasaUseCase9CompanieswithintheConsumerSectors9Section 2: TheBusinessEnvironmentforConsumerSectorCompanies10BusinessModels10ProfitMarginsofConsumerSectorCompanies12SupplyChains12RisksoftheDigitalEconomy14ChangingConsumerPreferences15CorporateDistress15Section 3: RisksforConsumerSectorCompanies16Self-ReportedTopEnterpriseRisksbyCompaniesintheConsumerSectors16ConstructingaComprehensiveRiskRegister18CambridgeTaxonomyofBusinessRisks18Section 4: ExplorationofRisksthroughScenarios20IntroductiontoScenarioStressTests20ScenarioStressTeststoAssessRiskExposureandtheValueofMitigations21Section 5: ApplicationofScenariosforCorporateRiskProfiling23DefiningaCorporateLossModel23CorporateLossModellingMethodology23FiveYearEnterpriseValueatRisk(5yrEVRiSk)23UsingSyrEV(三)RiskinDecision-Making23Section 6: OverviewofaFictionalisedCompany-Avocadoplc24Description24VaIueChain24FinancialPerformance25MaterialityofRisks27EvaluatingtheMaterialityofRisks27Section 7: StressTestScenarios28OverviewandSelectionofScenarios28ScenarioA-TradeDispute:UnitedStatesvsEuropeanUnion28ScenarioB-GeopoliticalConflict:PakistanvsIndia28ScenarioC-CyberAttack:ContagiousMalwareInfestation28ScenarioD-NaturalCatastrophe:FloodsDamageKeyFacility29ScenarioE-Pandemic:HighlyInfectiousInfluenzaVirus29ScenarioF-Governance:EqualPayMovement29Section 8: DevelopingScenariosandAnalysingtheirImpacts30LikelihoodofScenarioOccurrence30ScenarioImpactAssessment30ContentsSection 9: InformingRiskDecisions33TheCompany'sRiskMatrix33BreachingExplicitRiskToleranceLevels34DefiningtheCompany'sRiskTolerance34LikelihoodofCrisis35CompanyLossExceedanceProbability36Section 10: RiskMitigationActions37Threat-specificMitigationforCatastrophicRisks37Threat-specificMitigationforStrategicRisks37Resilience-strengthening37MonitoringOtherRisks38Section 11: Conclusions39Bibliography40AppendixA:ScienceinScenarios42ScenarioA-TradeDispute:UnitedSt