亚开行-家庭通胀预期调查中的非响应偏差（英）-2023.12_市场营销策划_重点报告20230120.docx

NONRESPONSEBIASINHOUSEHOLDINFLATIONEXPECTATIONSSURVEYSNO.706ADBECONOMICSDecember2023WORKINGPAPERSERIESADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesNonresponseBiasinHouseholdInflationExpectationsSurveysMeltem Chadwick, Rennae Cherry, and Jaqueson K. GalimbertiNo. 706 I December 2023The ADB Economics Working PaperSeries presents research in progress to elicit comments and encourage debate on development issues in Asia and the Pacific. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of ADB or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.Meltem Chadwick (meltem.chadwickseacen.org) is a senior economist at the South East Asian Central Banks Research and Training Centre. Rennae Cherry (rennae.cherryrbnz.govt.nz) is an economic analyst at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Jaqueson K. Galimberti (jgalimbertiadb.org) is an economist at the Economic Research and Development Impact Department, Asian Development Bank.缸_CBMCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)©2023AsianDevelopmentBank6ADBAvenue.MandaluyongCity,ISSOMetroManila.PhilippinesTel+63286324444;Fax+63286362444Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2023.ISSN2313-6537(print),2313-6545(electronic)PublicationStockNo.WPS230552-2DOI:WPS230552-2TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesOfcheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm"country"inthispublication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea.ThispublicationisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)Byusingthecontentofthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adaptations,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttps:/www.adb.0rg/terms-use#0penaccess.ThisCChtmaterialsinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedcoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasaresultofyouruseofthematerial.Pleasecontactpubsmarketingadb.orgifyouhavequestionsorcommentswithrespecttocontent,orifyouwishtoobtaincopyrightpermissionforyourintendedusethatdoesnotfallwithintheseterms,orforpermissiontousetheADBlogo.CorrigendatoADBpublicationsmaybefoundatNoteInthispublication."NZS"referstoNewZealanddollars.ABSTRACTThispaperusesmicrodatafromtheReserveBankofNewZealand,sHouseholdInflationExpectationssurveytoobtainanaccuratereadofhouseholds*trueinflationexpectationsbystudyinghowdifferentdemographicgroupsrespond(ordonotrespond)totheinflationexpectationsquestioninthesurvey.Wefindnonresponsesleadtosubstantialunderrepresentationofsomedemographicgroupsinthesurvey:young,female,low-income,andminorityethnicgroupshavelowerresponserates.Howthesurveyisconductedalsoaffectsitemresponserates.Thesurveyresponseratesincreasewhenthesurveyisconductedonlineandwheninflationratesdeviatefromthecentralbank,stargetrange.Usingasampleselectionmodel,weassesswhetherthesurveyhasitemnonresponsebiasbycomparingthedemographiccharacteristicsofrespondersandnonresponders.Afteraccountingforselection,wefindthatobserveddifferencesininflationexpectationsbygender,ethnicity,andincomedecreasesubstantially,whiledifferencesbyageincrease.Wequantifyanddemonstratehowtoadjustaverageinflationexpectationsforbiascausedbyitemnonresponse.Weshowthatthereisapositivebias,andtheaggregateinflationexpectationseriesshiftsdownaftertheadjustment.Keywords:inflationexpectations,householdsurveys,itemnonresponse,demographicheterogeneityJELcodes:C83,D84,E31,E71Paperpresentedatthe2023BISAnnualWorkshopoftheAsianResearchNetwork,the2023ConferenceoftheNewZealandAssociationofEconomists,the5thBankofIndonesia-ADBInstitute-AsiaPacificAppliedEconomicsAssociationWorkshop,andattheADB/ERDISeminarSeries.WethankSeunghyeonLeeandBhaveshGargfortheinsightfuldiscussionsofourpaperandotherparticipantsofthepresentationsaboveformanycomments.Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheircorrespondinginstitutionalaffiliations.Correspondingauthor:JaquesonK.Galimberti(jgalimbertiadb.org)1 IntroductionMeasuresofinflationexpectationsareofparamountimportancetomonetarypolicy.Inflationexpectationsarekeydeterminantsofpricesthroughtheforward-lookingbehaviorofhouseholdsandfirmswhilealsounderpinningwhetherbeliefsareanchoredtothecentralbank'sinflationtarget.Surveysarethemostcommoninstrumentusedtomeasureinflationexpectations.Whereasthefocusisonaggregatemeasures,suchasaveragesandmedians,itiscrucialtounderstandtheaccur