规划中非关系的未来：非洲大陆如何受益（英）-南非国际事务研究所-2021.10-34正式版.docx

OccasionalPaperMappingtheFutureofChina-AfricaRelations:HowtheContinentcanBenefitYlKEFU&OVIGWEEGUEGUAfrican perspectivesGlobal insightsSA%SOVTMMRKANlNSlfnZTtWyOFINIBtNAnOHAlAFFAftSJAbstractChinaisAfrica'slargesttradingpartner,anddeeperChina-Africaengagementhasthepotentialtotransformthecontinentstrade.TheestablishmentoftheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea(AfCFTA)issettoaddsignificantlytothisevolution,particularlyasmostoftheAfricancountriesthathaveratifiedtheagreementunderpinningthefreetradeareaarealsosignatoriestotheChinese-ledBeltandRoadInitiative.ThispavesthewayforgreaterstrategiccooperationbetweenAfricaandChinaintheareaoftrade,withmanyinfrastructuredevelopmentprojectsthathavebeencarriedoutundertheauspicesoftheBeltandRoadInitiativeprovidinganimportantfoundationfortradeexpansiononthecontinent.However,todate,China-Africaengagementhasbeenrelativelyadhocanduncoordinated,anditseffectsandbenefits(especiallyfromAfrica,sperspective)difficulttodetermine.ThispaperevaluatesthepotentialforgreatercoordinationbetweentheAfCFTAandtheBeltandRoadInitiativebyexaminingfourcooperationapproaches:(1)the*business-as-usuaor'statusquo,optioninwhichtheChina-Africarelationship(helpedbyChineseFDIflowstoAfrica)willcontinuetoevolveandtwo-waytradewillincreasebutinanadhocmanner;(2)greatercoordinationbetweentheAfCFTAandBeltandRoadInitiative,involvingthechannellingofChineseFDIintoprioritycountriesandsectorsinAfricaandsupportedbytheestablishmentofeconomiczones;(3)managedeconomicintegrationbetweentheAfCFTAandtheBeltandRoadInitiativeandapreferentialtradeframework,modelledalongthelinesoftheUSAfricanGrowthandOpportunityAct,withsignificantopportunitiesforChineseFDIineconomiczonesinAfrica;(4)afreetradeagreementbetweenChinaandtheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea.Eachoftheseoptionshasadvantagesanddrawbacks,whiletheirfeasibilityalsovaries.Drawingonthecomparativeassessment,thepaperofferscertainrecommendationstoAfricanpolicymakersandotherstakeholdersfortakingChina-Africarelationstothenextlevel,withthefreetradeagreementandBeltandRoadInitiativeactingasimportantpillarsinthetwosides*futureengagements.IntroductionIn2018,theDeclarationandActionPlanfortheSeventhForumonChina-AfricaCooperation(FOCAC)madethefirstdirectreferencetotheAfCFTA1whichbecameoperationalon1January2021.ItalsopubliclyannouncedtheclosealignmentoftheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI)withtheAfricanUnion(AU)Agenda2063andthedevelopmentstrategiesbyallAfricancountries.AsChinaandAUsignedacooperationplanfortheBRIandAUAgenda2063inDecember2020,linkingtheBRIandtheAfCFTAwillbeakeythemeofFOCAC8in2021.Asof30January2021,140countriesand31internationalorganisationshadsignedcooperationdocuments(MemorandaofUnderstanding)withChinaontheBRI,amongwhichwere46Africancountries.Furthermore,36AfricancountrieshavedepositedtheirinstrumentsofratificationofAfCFTAwiththeAUCommission.Ofthe36countries,29arealsosignatoriestotheBRI.Giventhesignificantoverlapinsignatories,bothChinaandAfricangovernmentshaveanincentivetoconsiderhowtoleveragetheirtradelinkagesamongsignatorycountriesandhowinfrastructureprojectswilldirectlyenhancetradeconnectivity,thusmakingFOCAC2021animportantplatformforexchangingideasanddiscussingspecificconcernsaswellasflagshipprojectsthatwilllinktheBRIandAfCFTA.BothChinaandAfricangovernmentshaveanincentivetoconsiderhowtoleveragetheirtradelinkagesamongsignatorycountriesandhowinfrastructureprojectswilldirectlyenhancetradeconnectivityThereareseveralwaysinwhichtheBRIandAfCFTAcouldbelinkedgoingforward.Inthispaper,weappraisethepotentialoffouroptionsforfutureengagement:a*business-as-usuaor*status-quo,fairlyuncoordinatedbaselineoption;twotypesoftargetedandstructuredapproachestotradecooperation;andafullliberalisationoption,ie,anAfCFTA-ChinaFreeTradeAgreement(FTA).Weuseanadaptedstrengths,weaknesses,opportunitiesandthreats(SWOT)frameworktoexploretheprosandconsofeachoptioninaconsistentmanner.WealsoincorporatetheresultsofagravitymodelofAfrica-Chinatradeaswellascasestudiesontwosectors-manufacturingandagriculture-toexplaininmoreliteraltermsthepotentialforinnovative,strategictradecooperationandcollaborationbetweenChinaandAfrica.BasedonthisappraisalandinviewoftheupcomingFOCACin20211wethenproviderecommendationsfortheAU,Africangovernments,Africancivilsocietyandthinktankstomakeoneormorepreferredoptionsareality.Specifically,weurgeallthepartiestotakefulladvantageofthesynergiesbetweentheBRIandAfCFTAinnewandinnovativeways,whilelearningfrompastexperiencesandinteractionswithotherdevelopmentpartners.Cost-benefitanalysisTodate,mostoftheanalysisrelatedtotheimpactoftheBRIonthecontinenthasfocusedontheBRspotentialeffectoninfrastructure.Indeed,asthemainpurposeoftheBRIistostrengthenlinkagesonatranscontinentalscale,thereisnodoubtthatmostoftheprojectsarefocusedonlogisticsandtransportationinfrastructure,includingthebuildingofroads,railways,andmarineandairlinks.AccordingtoYiGang,thegovernorofthePeople,sBankofChina,Chinesefinancialinstitutionshavefunded$440billion-worthofinfrastructureprojectswithintheBRIcountries,m