Unit-7-The-Art-of-Smart-Guessing翻译.docx

Unit7TheArtofSmartGuessingBryanW.Mattimore1. Severalyearsago,interviewingcandidatesforajob,Igrewtiredofasking"whatexperiencedoyouhave?"SoIdecidedonaone-questionquiztofindouthowresourcefulathinkerthenewhiremightbe.Hereitis:2. YouareonayachtsailingthePacificOcean.Yournavigatorannouncesyouareoverthedeepestpoint,theMarianaTrench.Justthen,aclumsyguestaccidentallydropsa12-poudcannonballovertheside.HowlongwillittakeforthecannonballtoreachthebottomoftheOcean?3. Beforereadingon,pleasetrytosolvethisyourself-payingspecialattentiontohowyoumightsolveit.4. Didyoumakeacompletelywildguessbecause,'therewasn'tenoughinformation"?Didyougettbaggeddowninthedetailstryingtocomeupwiththe*exactlyright1*answer?Ordidyouzeroinonthetwomostimportantproblems-howdeepistheMarianaTrenchandhowfastmightacannonballfallthroughthewater-thenhazardaguesstimate?5. Mostofmycandidatessimplymadeawildguess,thinkingthattheycouldn,tbe100-percetright.Rarelywassomeonewillingtoriskanapproximation.6. Whatdoesthishavetodowithbusinessorcreativity?Agreatdeal.Intherealworld,wefrequentlyneedtomakedecisionswhenthefullinformationdoesnotexist.Fromwhatfoodsweeattohowtoralourkids,creativepeoplemustthinkforthemseh/es.Theremaynotbethetimeorthemoneytomakesureofallyourdecisions.Yourbestguesswilloftenbethebestyoucando.7. Suppose,forexample,you'vebeenaskedtowriteamarketingplanforanewtelephonedevicethatwillsendyourname,company,addressandtelephonenumbertoavisualdisplayorprinteronanotherperson'sphone.Inadditiontoconventionaloutletslikemassmerchandisersandelectronicsstores,you'dliketoknowthenumberof"phonestores*intheUnitedStates.Unfortunatelyzthisfigureisnotavailable,eitherfromthemarket-researchhousesorfromtheU.S.government.Whatdoyoudo?8. Onesolutionwouldbetogotoyourlocallibrary,pulloutafewphonedirectoriesfromaroundthecountry,turntotheYellowPagesandstartcounting.Youcouldthenguesstimatehowmanystoresper100.0peopleineachofthecitiesyoucounted.This,bytheway,isexactlywhatamarketingconsultantIknowdidforalargetelecommunicationsclient.9. ThequestionaboutphonestoreswasanexampleofwhatscientistscallaFermproblem,namedafterNobelPrizewinningscientistEnricoFermizwhousedproblemssuchasthistoteachhisstudentshowtothinkforthemselves.AFermiproblemdoesnotcontainalltheinformationyouneedtosolveitprecisely.10. FermiissaidtohaveonceaskedhsuniversitystudentshowmanypianotunerstherewereinChicago.Toanswerthequestion,herecommendedbreakingitdownintosmaller,moremanageablequestions,andthenhavingthecouragetomakesomeguessesandassumptions.HowmanypeopleliveinChicago?Threemillionwouldbeareasonableestimate.Howmanypeopleperfamily?Assumeanaverageoffour.Howmanyfamiliesownpianos?Sayoneoutofthree.Thentherewereabout250,000pianosinChicago.Howoftenwouldeachbetuned?Maybeonceeveryfiveyears.Thatmakes50,000tuningsayearHowmanypianoscanonetunertuneinaday?Four?Andhowmanyinayear?Assuming250workingdaysfonetunercanhandle1,000pianosyear.11. Sothere,sworkforapproximately50pianotunersinChicagowhich,asitturnsout.isreasonablyclosetotheactualnumberintheYellowPages.12. Whywasguessworksoaccurate?Thelawofaveragesispartlyresponsible.Atanypoint,yourassumptionsmaybetoohighortoolow.Butbecauseofthelawofaverages,yourmistakeswillfrequentlybalanceout.13. Here'sanotherpuzzle.Youprobablyalreadyknowthatblackabsorbsthemostheat,whilewhitereflectsthemost.Butwhatabouttheothercolorsinbetween?Howuldyoufindtheanswer?Hint：t,swintertime,butnottoocold.14. BenFrankli,ssolutionwaselegant.Hesimplylaidbroadclothsamplesofvariouscolorsonthesnowonasunnymorning."Inafewhours/*hereported,*theblack,beingwarmedmostbythesun,wassunksolowastobebelowthestrokeofthesun'srays；thedarkblue,almostaslow；thelighterbluenotquitesomuchasthedark;theotherCOIOrS,lessastheywerelighter,andthequitewhiteremainedonthesurfaceofthesnow,nothavingentereditatall."15. Oneofmyfavoritewguesstimatorswis,westConnecticutinventorStanMasonzwhodevelopedmicrowavecookwarespeciallydesignedtopositionfoodinthebestspotforcooking.16. Todothis,Masonneededtoknowwherethemicrowave's"hotspots”were-theplacewheretherayshitthefoodwiththehighestintensity.Tofindoutheputshelvesofunpoppedpopcornkernelsinthemicrowaveandwatchedtoseewhichkernelspoppedfirst.Hediscoveredapatternintheoven'shottestrays:theyweren'tinthecomersoratthecenter,butintheshapeofamushroomcloud.17. Thenhedesignedcookingdishestofitthepattern.Hehadcomeupwitharesourcefulwaytoapproximatetheanswerratherthanusingscientificallysophisticatedtestingequipment.18. Fermiwouldhaveapproved.19. Bytheway,theMarianaTrenchisaboutsixnauticalmilesdeep,andacannonballdropsatarateoftenfeetpersend.Soittookthecannonballaboutanhourtoreachthebottomofthetrench.20. Couldthisbeguessed?IfyouknowthatEarth'shighestpointMountQomolangma,is29,000feet,youmightreasonablyconcludethatitslowestpointwouldbedosetothesamedistance.ThenyoumightimaginethataheavyobjectwouldtakeonesecondtofallthroughthewaterofaIOfootdeepswimmingpool.Theseestimateswouldbringyoucloseenoughtothecorrectanswer.ChineseTranslationofParagraphs1 .几年前,我给应聃者面试.问他们"你有什么阅历？”这个问时.后来渐渐何烦了