2024年中国消费市场全景报告.docx

ABOUTTHISREPORTFeb20242024BRANDMARKETING&MEDIAP1.ANNINGOUT1.OOKChlna,seconomyisstuckinaholdingpattern,confusedaboutapost-Covidrestartthatdidthappenin2023.And.whileChinahashadadistinctb>astowardoptimismandgrowthheconomyi$stuck11th©middle。，adelIaIionaryrecessionandconsumersaqturning11GgdtivR.MarketinginCh<11aiswitnessinganinflectionpointm：o2024Giventhiseconomicbackdfp.marketerswillneedtoadjusttonewframeworksforgrowthinChina,andanenvironmentwhereconsumersaremorecautious,moreconsideredandmuchmoreselective.Theheady<½ysofWildgrowthand11H>ulsepurchasesaregone-tobereplacedwithmorerational,cautiousandconsideredbuyingdecisions.Dsptthegrowingairofeoat1vly.thisenvironmentpresentsrealopportunitytorbandstoGoVeaheadAsweakerplayersareexposed,c11ppeorretreat.morewellmanagedcompaniesshouldt>eabletoImdbreathingspace.OnaCategoryOy-categorybasis.ChinahasOeenthemostcrowdedandcomplicatedmarketintheVorld.oftenhaving10-50xthenumberotcompetitorspercategory(whencomparedwthmorematuremarkets!.ThescaleoicompetitioncouldeaseastheresultoaprolongedmarketcontractionThetricktocomingoutAheadhavingaCIGarperspectiveontMtiming,dplhofthedownturnaswellasinternalPlanSforhowioposlo11andpriceaccordingly.PositioningandstrategyaroundadencetargetingwillgkeyasChina'snewco11su11>erenvironmentunfolds.Withinthisenvironment,therewillbefewerwinnerspercategory.ThegoalofmarketingteamswillbetoensurethatIheirbrandsareamongthewinnersasthingsshakeoul.Dialinginbrandpositioningandvaluepropositionwithacoreconsumergroupisanimportantfirststep.InSection5othisreportwelookintothepositioningimplicationsforbrandsduringrecession.And.whileIherewillboatemptationtoturnallmarketingeffortstowardboltom-qf-funnolperformance,buildingemotionalconnectionsUrustzafrinity)shouldplayanimpofiantroleintisnewparadigm.Wieconsumerswillspendlessinto2024.theywillstillpurcasethebrandstheyknow,loveandtrustmost.Many(weaker)brandswillbewelladvisedtowithdrawfromChinagivencurrentconditions.Volmanaged,wellpositionedbrandswillbeadvisedtostayfocused,budlastingconnectionswithcorecustomers.an<Joutlastat>oatedcoho11ofweakercompetitorsAstheWorld'ssecondlargesteconomy,thescaleandpo!entialolCinacannoteasilybereplaced(with,foreampte3newlyemergingmarket).So.PUHiC9outshouldbecarefullyconsidered.It'salsopossiblethatrestofworldfollowsCtoselyinChina'stracks,bydippingintorecession.Inthiscontext,pullingoutofChinanowinfavorofanothermarkel-mightbackfire.Forinstance.Germany.JapanandtheUKarealready,officiallyinrecession.ChrisBakerFounder.TotemTHETOTA1.NUMBEROFINTERNETUSERSINCHINACONTINUESTOGROWATAROUND5%EACHYEAR,ANDCURRENT1.YSITSATOVER1.079SI1.1.ION.OFTHOSE,1.076BI1.1.IONAREMOBI1.EUSERS'(MORET11AN9OFCHINA'S-INTERNETPOPU1.ATIONARSMOBI1.E).：-Bycomparison,thereare311.3milliopnetizensintheUSfasOfJanuary2023)andan91.%AnobilePenekationrate三xchv)*bia*9(vo0.ap.J*,t2ItgnatSWb.pl.,1:ocv_loginusernMB1:oraasowwopjdminla_loginCHINA'SINTERNETPOPU1.ATIONSource:CWC2023IxpostfixadalnIntitle:*postfIxadnlnaCHINA'SDIGITA1.1.ANDSCAPEISAROUIDSOCA1.COT'aIentitiesJSTRUCTURED'SSHAfISUPERWEENJHOPP1N1ASE1.ECTFEWD'OHAVECAPTUREDCONSUMERFOCUS?THATB1.URTHE1.INNETWORKINGANDOKltIIW112512021Source:依QTHEAIMOFSOCIA1.COMMERCEISCHANNE1.AUDIENCEEXCITEMENTANDINTENTTOWARDSCHECKOUT,USINGAOFINF1.UENCERMARKETING,REAIKEVIDEO.CONTENTANDREVIEWSHARING.sdotheirWthetypicalChina'snotoriouslyutioscresearchbeforemakingPUrChaSUSbuyerwhomightconsult3-4sorcQfp>tcas.Chineseconsumerstopicallyexplore*15-Afferentsources.'SuperApps,offerstrongnetworksofsocialendorsementswithintheirexclusiveecosystems.CHINACONSUMERCONFIDENCE(2010-2023)CONSUMERSENTIMENTCONSUMERCONFIDENCEINCHINAISC1.OSE1.YRE1.ATEDTOTHEPROPERTYMARKET.THEWEA1.THEFFECTFROMPROPERTYGAINSHASFUE1.EDROBUSTCONSUMPTIONINTHEPASTDECADE(三).CONSUMERANDPROPERTYCONFIDENCEHAVEBEENMOVINGDOWN-INCONCERT-SINCEBEFORECOVID.MOVINGFORWARD,JOBINSECURITYMAYBEAFURTHERDRAGONCONSUMERCONFIDENCE.ChineseholdmostofIheirpersonalwealthinproperty,withmorethan75%investmentsinproperty,comparedto30%intheUS.Inadditiontothoweakproperlymarket,thesmallshareofinvestmentsthatdogotofinancialassetsaregettingtrampled,asChina'sstockmarketshavegottenslammedin2023-24.HOUSEHO1.DINVESTMENTMIX(CHINAVSUSA)25%50%75%100%Source:S<xve&ResearchCenterforChtnaHouschMfv311ceReachingdownintolowertiercitieshasbeenago-tomoveforbrandslookingtofindnewgrowthinChinaoverthepastdecade.1.owertiercities,coupledwiththeexpansionofthemiddleclasshaveofferednearendlessopportunitiesforgrowth.Brandslookingtotapintonewsourcesofgrowthinto2024andbeyond,willneedtoadjusttacticsandfocusonamixof;(1)incomestrata(middlevsaffluentclasses),(2)citytiers(T1vslowertier)and(3)generationaltiers(boomersvsGenZ).ShouldChinaseconomiccontractionintensify,thegrowthofthemiddleclasswillstall(andshiftintoreverse).Atthesametime,aneconomicdownturnwillputpressureongrowthoflowertiermarkets.Inthis