IMF-进口关税和贸易政策不确定性的宏观经济后果（英）-2024.1.docx

INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDTheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertainty1.ukasBoerandMalteRiethWP/24/13IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2024JANWP/24/13©2024InternationalMonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperResearchDepartmentTheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertaintyPreparedby1.ukasBoerandMalteRieth*AuthorizedfordistributionbyJaewoo1.eeJanuary2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheathor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:WeestimatethemacroeconomiceffectsofimporttariffsandtradepolicyuncertaintyintheUnitedStates,combiningtheory-consistentandnarrativesignrestrictionsinBayesianSVARs.Wefindmostlyadverseconsequencesofprotectionism,inaggregateandacrosssectorsandregions.Tariffshocksaremoreimportantthantradepolicyuncertaintyshocks.Tariffshocksdepresstrade,investment,andoutputpersistently.Thegeneralequilibriumimportelasticityis-0.8.Historically,NAFTA/WTOraisedoutputby1-3%fortwentyyears.Undoingthe2018/19measureswouldraiseoutputby4%overthreeyears.Thefindingsimplyhighergainsoftradethanpartialequilibriumorstatictrademodels.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Boer,1.ukas,andMalteRieth,2024."TheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertainty,"IMFWorkingPaper24/13.JE1.ClassificationNumbers:C32,E30,F13,F14Keywords:Tradepolicy;internationaltrade;structuralvectorautoregressions;narrativeidentification;generalequilibrium;UnitedStates.Author'sE-MailAddress:Iboerimf.org,mriethdiw.deMalteRiethisaffiliatedwithMartin-1.uther-UniversitatHalle-WittenbergandtheGermanInstituteforEconomicResearch(DIWBerlin).TheauthorsaregratefultoThiloAlbers,MichaelBurda,DarioCaldara,AdamJakubik,Jaewoo1.ee,1.ukasMenkhoff,RomanMerga,FabianSeyrich1MartinStuermer11.eopoldZessner-Spitzenberg1andseminarparticipantsattheDIWBerlinforhelpfulmments.WORKINGPAPERSTheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertaintyPreparedby1.ukasBoerandMalteRieth1 IntroductionTheuncertaintyaboutUStradepolicyspikedaroundandfollowingthe2016presidentialelection.Subsequently,theUSraisedimporttariffssubstantially.Forexample,theaveragerateonChinesegoodshasincreasedfrom3%to21%between2018and2020.Thereturnofprotectionismrenewedtheinterestamongpolicymakersandresearchersworldwideintwoclassicquestionsininternationaleconomics.Whataretheeffectsofimporttariffsinlargeopeneconomies?Whatistheeffectofuncertaintyabouttradepolicyinsuchcountries?Twolong-standingstrandsofresearchaddressthesequestionsbyusingmicroeconomicdata,analyzingthetwoquestionsinisolation,andfocusingonselectedtradeepisodes.AmacroeconomicaccountoftheaverageeffectsofbothdimensionsofUStradepolicyovermanytradeeventsislargelymissing.Thispaperaimsatfillingthegap.WeproddeevidenceontheeffectsofimporttariffsandtradepolicyuncertaintyontheUSeconomyingeneralequilibriumsincethe1960s.Combiningtwotraditionsintheempiricalmacroeconomicliterature,ouridentificationapproachusesboththeoryandnarrativeinformationtodisentangleandestimatetheeffectsoftradepolicylevelanduncertaintyshocks.Wecontributetotheliteratureoninternationaltradealongthreemaindimensions.First,theempiricaltradeliteratureismainlybasedonmicroeconomicdata.Forexample,Fajgelbaumetal.(2019)estimatetheimpactoftradeimpedimentsinpartialequilibrium.Then,theyembedtheseestimatesinastructuralgeneralequilibriummodel.Thisapproachdeliverssharpidentificationanddetailedinsightsintotheeconomicmechanisms.Buttheaggregateeffectsarebasedonpotentiallystrongbehadoralandparametricassumptionsandreferonlytothelongrunastheyarebasedoncomparativestatics.Wecomplementtheseinsightsbystartingfromtheoppositeside.WeestimatetheshortrungeneralequilibriumeffectsusingaflexibleempiricalframeworkinformofaBayesianstructuralvectorautoregression(SVAR)withminimalassumptions.Then,weusetheidentifiedshockstodeterminethedisaggregatedimpactsacrossUSsectorsandstates.ThesecondcontributionistoestimatebothdimensionsofUStradepolicy,shiftsintheleveloftariffsandintheuncertaintyaroundthese,inoneencompassingmodel.Bycontrast,mostoftheempiricaltradeliteratureanalyzesthemseparately,treatingeitheroneasorthogonaltotheother.1Thismightbeproblematicbecausetariffchangesandtradepolicyuncertaintyoftengo,Autoretal.(2016)andFajgelbaumandKhandelwal(2022)reviewtheliteratureontheeffectsoftariffchangeshandinhand,astherecentUStradedisputesillustrate.Inaddition,identifyingbothlevelanduncertaintyshiftswithinasinglemodelhastheadvantagethattheimplicationsandimportanceofbothdimensionoftradepolicycanbecomparedconsistently.Thethirdcontributionistocomplementtheexistingestimatesbasedonsingletradeevents,orshortersamples,withevidencefrom6oyearsofquarte