IMF-自动化与福利：任务与教育的作用（英）-2024.1.docx

INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDAutomationandWelfare:TheRoleofBequestsandEducationPreparedbyManukGhazanchyan,AlexeiGoumilevski,andAlexMourmourasWP/24/11IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2024JAN©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/24/11AutomationandWelfare:TheRoleofBequestsandEducation*PreparedbyManukGhazanchyan5AlexeiGoumilevski,andAlexMourmourasAuthorizedfordistributionbyAlexMourmourasJanuary2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:ThispaperexaminesthewelfareeffectsofautomationinneoclassicalgrowthmodelswithandwithoutIntergenerationaltransfers.Inastandardoverlappinggenerationsmodelwithoutsuchtransfers,improvementsinautomationtechnologiesthatwouldlowerwelfarecanbemitigatedbyshiftsinlaborsupplyrelatedtodemographicsorpandemics.WithperfectIntergenerationaltransfersbasedonaltruism,automationcouldraisethewell-beingofallgenerations.Withimperfectaltruism,fiscaltransfers(universalbasicincome)andpublicpoliciestoexpandaccesstoeducationopportunitiescanalleviatemuchofthenegativeeffectofautomation.JE1.ClassificationNumbers:E13,E62,D641,1Automation;Aging;Altruism;FiscalPolicy;Education;Keywords:,.OverlappingGenerationsmahazanchyanimf.orq：aqoumilevskiimf.orq;Authors'E-MailAddresses:amourmourasimf.orqaManukGhazanchyanisanEconomistintheWesternHemisphereDepartment,AlexeiGoumilevskiisaSeniorScientificComputingEngineerintheInformationandTechnologyDepartment,andAlexMourmourasisDivisionChiefintheAsiaPacificDepartment.Presentedatthe28thInternationalConferenceonComputinginEconomicsandFinanceinDallas,Texas,June17-19,h,2022.Wethankconferenceparticipantsfortheirusefulcomments.WearealsogratefultoPeterRangazas1MarinaMendesTavares,andJeremyCliftfortheinsightfulcommentsthatshapedourpaper.ContentsI. Introduction1II. Relevant1.iterature3III. AutomationandWelfareinOverlappingGenerationModels5B. IntroducingaOne-Timetax9C. K&SModelwithaBequest11D. K&SModelwithBequestandEducation141. PrivateEducation152. PublicEducation17IV.ArtificialIntelligence22A.K&SModel22IV.Conclusions26Appendices27Appendix A. K&SModelwithBequest27Appendix B. ReplicatingKotlikoffandSachs(2012)31Appendix C. RobustnessChecks31A.References3410000Decliningtrendsinworking-agepopulation(inmillions)900080007000202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044204620482050Workingagepopulation(China)Workingagepopulation(world)I. IntroductionAutomationhasacceleratedinrecentdecades,drivenbyongoingimprovementsincomputingandinformationtechnologiesandassociatedcostreductions.Machinesinawideningrangeofindustriesperformincreasinglycomplextasks,poweredbysophisticated,networkedsoftware.Theaccelerationinautomationanditseconomy-widediffusioninblue-andwhite-collaroccupationsalikeiscreatingnewemploymentcategoriesbutisalsocontributingtowideninginequalityandfuelingdemandforgovernmentpoliciestoreverselong-termincomelossesoflabor.Thislong-standingpromiseandconcernsarevividlyillustratedbythelatestbreakthroughinArtificialIntelligenceinvolvinggenerative,pretrainedtransformers.1.ookingahead,whilethepaceofautomationislikelytocontinue,itseffectsmaybemitigatedbyoffsettingforces.Populationsareagingalmosteverywhere.Intheadvancedeconomies,theworkingagepopulationhasstartedshrinkingforthefirsttimesinceWorldWarIl(Spence,2022).Globally,thepopulationofworkingageisexpectedtocontinuetogrowuntilabout2040,buttherat100ftheworkingagepopulationtothetotalisalreadydecliningglobally(Chart).InthecaseofChina,forexample,theworking-agepopulationisexpectedtoshrinkbyafifthoverthenext30years.AsGoodhartandPradhanstress,ourageisoneofdemographicreversalinwhichtheuIongglutofinexpensivelaborthathadkeptpricesandwagesdownfordecades,isgivingwaytoaneraofworkershortages,andhencehigherprices".0.70.60.50.40.30.20.10Workingagepopulation/Totalpopulation(World)-rightWorkingagePOPUlatiOn/Totalpopulation(China)-rightSource:UnitedNations.WorldBank,andstaffcalculationsRecurringglobalpandemicsalsoadverselyaffectlaborsupply,eitherbydepressinggrowthinthelaborforcedirectly(AIDSpandemic),orindirectlybyreducingtheparticipationofolderworkersandothersincontact-intensiveoccupations(pandemicrelatedtoCovid-19).Intheabsenceofmasssouth-northmigration,robotsmayturnouttobeessentialinmeetingmoreoftheneedsoftheelderlyandreversedeclinesinaggregateoutputandwelfarei.ThispaperexaminesthecombinedwelfareeffectsofautomationandlowerlaborsupplyusingneoclassicalgrowthmodelswithandwithoutIntergenerationaltransfers.Itbeginsbyreplicatingaversionofthewell-knownresultofKotlikoffandSachs(K&S,2012)tha