IMF-冈比亚：选定问题（英）-2024.1.docx

INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDIMFCountryReportNo.24/16THEGAMBIASelectedissuesJanuary2024ThispaperonTheGambiawaspreparedbyastaffteamoftheInternationalMonetaryFundasbackgrounddocumentationfortheperiodicconsultationwiththemembercountry.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember18,2023.CopiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfromInternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201E-mail:Dublicationsimf.orgWeb:Price:$18.00perprintedcopyInternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C.©2024InternationalMonetaryFundDecember18,2023INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDTHEGAMBIASE1.ECTEDISSUESApprovedByAfricanDepartmentPreparedbytheIMFGambiaTeamCONTENTSTHEGAMBIA:DOMES11CANDEXTERNA1.DRIVERSOFINF1.ABON3A. 1.iteratureReview3B. StylizedFacts4C. EmpiricalAnalysis6HGURES1. HeadlineInflationandDrivers52. InflationandMonetaryPolicyRates63. ExchangeRatePass-ThroughtoInflation9TAB1.ES1. O1.SRegressionsofInflationandItsDeterminants92. ADFUnitRootTests103. BoundsTestforCointegrationinNon-1.inearSpecification104. NARD1.EstimationResultsforthe1.ong-RunCointegratingVector115. NARD1.EstimationResultsfortheParsimoniousModel11References12THEGAMBIA:C1.IMATECHANGEVU1.NERABI1.ITIESANDSTRATEGIES14A. VulnerabilitiestoClimateHazards14B. ClimateStrategyandPlanning16C. EmissionsandMitigation18D. Adaptation19E. ClimateFinancing21F. PublicFinanceManagement22G. Conclusion23FIGURES1. TotalNumberofNaturalDisasters142. Economic1.ossinTheGambiaAfterNaturalDisasters,1990-2023153. AgricultureandFoodVulnerabilityIndicators164. CerealYield165. GHGEmission:TotalBaselineandMitigationScenario2010-2030176. KayaIdentityinTheGambia187. GHGEmissionsbySectorinTheGambia188. Accessto日ectricityandCleanFuels199. AirPollution:WelfareCostsofPrematureMortalitiesfromExposuretoAmbientPM2.5,GDPEquivalent1910. Adaptation,SDGandAgriculture2111. FertilizerConsumption2112. InvestmentinAdaptationtoClimateChangeNeedsandAidFlows21TAB1.E1.SelectedClimateFinancingAnnouncedin2022-202322References24THEGAMBIA:MACROECONOMICANDDISTRIBUTIONA1.IMP1.ICATIONSOFGENDERGAPS25A. Background25B. ModelingandEmpiricalAnalysis28C. ConclusionsandPolicyRecommendations30FIGURES1. GenderInequaIityIndicators,2021262. ImpactofHigherCostofFood283. GainsfromtheSimulations304. WomenEmploymentStatus325. FinancialAccessStrandbyGender326. PerceptionofWomenOwnershipandGovernance32TAB1.ES1.ImpactofHigherCostofFood282.DeterminantsofPovertyandConsumption33References34THEGAMBIA:DOMESTICANDEXTERNA1.DRIVERSOFINF1.ATIONPreparedbyJean-ClaudeNachegazGlenKwende,1.aurentKemoe,andFidelMarquezBarroeta.TheauthorswouldliketothankAndreaManeraforhelpfulcommentsanddiscussions.ThispaperinvestigatesthedriversOfheadlineinflationandthedegreeofexchangeratepassthrough(ERPT)inTheGambiaovertheperiod2014-2023.Theanalysishighlightsthedecisivelong-termrolesofglobalpricesofcommodities(food,oilandfertilizer),theexchangerate,andthedomesticoutputgap.Theshort-rundynamicsofinflationpointstotherolesofglobalfoodpriceandthesecond-roundeffectsofchangesinfoodpricesandtheoutputgap.Monetarypolicyhasthepotentialtotameinflationintheshortrunprovidedthemonetarypolicyrateisadjustedrapidlyandboldly.1.astly,thereisevidenceofanasymmetricERPTtodomesticprices,andthesizeOfcurrencydepreciationmattersforinflationdynamics.A. 1.iteratureReview1. Thereisawealthoftheoreticalandempiricalliteratureonthesourcesofinflationindevelopingcountries.Demand-pullfactors,externalfactors,and/orcost-push/inertialfactorshavereceivedmoreattentioninexplainingthedynamicsofinflationinspecificcountriesorgroupsofcountries.Demand-pullfactorshavebeenemphasizedbytwotheoriesofinflation.First,fiscal-monetarydoctrinesofinflation,alsoknownasthewfiscalview"ofinflation,stressthatinflationiscausedbyfiscalimbalances.Persistentfiscaldeficitsandhighpublicdebtleadtohighinflationbytriggeringexcessaggregatedemand,directlyorultimately,througheitherhighermoneygrowth(asinSargentandWallace(1981),s,fiscaldominancewhypothesisofmonetarypolicy)orperceivedwealtheffectsandlackofconfidencebythepublicinfiscalsolvency(asinthel,fiscaltheoryofthepricelevel0;see1.eeper,1991;Woodford,1995;andSims,1994).Underthefiscaltheoryofpricelevel,higherbond-financeddeficitsleadtohigherequilibriumpricelevelthroughtheireffectsonprivatesectorwealthandaggregatedemand,whereasmoneyplaysno(oralesser)role.Second,theoutputgapmodel,alsoknownasthePhilippscurveframework(Philips,1958;SamuelsonandSolow,1960),istheotherdemand-pulltheoryofinflation.Positive(negative)outputgaps,i.e.,thedifferencesbetweenactualandpotentialoutput,reflectanexcess(deficient)levelofeconomicactivityoverpotentialoutput,i.e.,anoverheated(underheated)economy,andhencerising(falling)inflation.2. Externalfactorsincludemovementsinexchangerates,thepricesofimportedfoodandenergyproducts,theglobaloutputgap,andremittanceinflows.The/,balanceofpayments