IMF-剖析欧洲平均工作时间的下降（英）-2024.1.docx

INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDDissectingtheDeclineinAverageHoursWorkedinEuropeDivaAstinova,RomainDuval,Niels-JakobH.Hansen,BenPark,IppeiShibata,andFrederikToscaniWP/24/2IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.WoRK-NGPAPERTheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WP/24/2©2024InternationalMonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperEuropeanDepartmentDissectingtheDeclineinAverageHoursWorkedinEuropePreparedbyDivaAstinova,RomainDuval,Niels-JakobH.Hansen,BenPark,IppeiShibata,andFrederikToscaniAuthorizedfordistributionbyRomainDuvalJanuary2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:ThreeyearsaftertheCOVID-19crisis,employmentandtotalhoursworkedinEuropefullyrecovered,butaveragehoursperworkerdidnot.WeanalyzethedeclineinaveragehoursworkedacrossEuropeancountriesandfindthat(i)itisnotcyclicalbutpredominantlystructural,extendingalong-termtrendthatpredatesCOVID-19,(ii)itmainlyreflectsreducedhourswithinworkergroups,notacompositionalshifttowardslower-hoursjobsandworkers,(iii)men-particularlythosewithyoungchildrenandyouthdrivethisdrop,(iv)declinesinactualhoursmatchdeclinesindesiredhours.Policyreformscouldhelpinvoluntarypart-timersandwomenwithyoungchildrenraisetheiractualhourstowardsdesiredlevels,buttheaggregateimpactonaveragehourswouldbelimitedto0.5to1.5percent.Overall,thereisscantevidenceofslackattheintensivemargininEuropeanlabormarkets,andthetrendfallinaveragehoursworkedseemsunlikelytoreverse.JE1.ClassificationNumbers:E24,J22,J21Keywords:hoursworked;workinghours;labormarket;Europeda2495nyu.edu：rduvalimf.ora;nhacsenimf.ora;Author,sE-MailAddress:hDark2imf.ora:ishibataimf.ora:ftoscaniimf.or(jAuthorsthankOyaCelasun,StephanDanninger1RupaDuttagupta,KamilDybczak,BorjaGracia,MaimaM.Tavares,HasanToprak1andseminarparticipantsattheIMFEuropeanDepartmentSeminar,EuropeanPolicyMeetings,andS2UnitMeetingfortheirgreatSuggetionsandinsights.TheviewsexpressedinthisstudyarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeattributabletotheInternationalMonetaryFund,itsExecutiveBoard,oritsmanagement.INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDContents1 Introduction52 Data93 DescriptiveStatistics114 DissectingtheDeclineinHoursattheWorker1.evel:Between-vs.Within-GroupDynamics155 DissectingtheDeclineinHoursattheWorker1.evel:RegressionAnalysis175.1 Specification175.2 Results175.3 Doesthedeclineinaveragehoursworkedreflectpreferencesorconstraints?.215.4 FurtherInsights245.4.1 TheRolesofEducation,IndustryandOccupation245.4.2 TheCross-CountryDimension246 ConcludingRemarks257 Appendix34A.lAdditionalFiguresandTables34A.2Education,IndustryandOccupation351.istofFigures1 TotalHoursWorked（八）,EmploymentRate(b)zandAverageHoursWorked(c)52 AverageHoursWorked:The1.ong-termTrend(Index/1970=1)123 Europe:1.egalNormalWeeklyHours124 AverageActualHoursWorked135 TotalHoursDecomposition:ExtensivevsIntensiveMargin146 BetweenandWithinDecomposition167 Distributionofactual,usual,anddesiredhours,levelandgap228 TimeSeriesofActual,UsualandDesiredhours239 CrossCountryEvidenceonHoursWorked251.istofTables10 SummaryStatistics:ActualHoursWorked152ActualHoursWorked20A.lSummaryStatistics:UsualHoursWorked34A.2ActualHoursWorkedFull-Time36A.3ActualHoursWorkedNonzero37A.4UsualHoursWorked38A.5ActualHoursWorkedofYoungWorkers39A.6HoursGap(Desired-ActualHours)40A.7HoursGap(Desired-UsualHoursWorked)41A.8HoursGap(Desired-UsualHoursWorked)amongFullTimeWorkers42A.9ReasonsforNotWorkingDespiteHavingaJob43A.10ReasonsforWorkingPart-Time43A.llHoursWorked:Education,Industry,andOccupation441IntroductionEuropeanlabormarketsexperiencedastrongrecoveryaftertheCOVID-19pandemic.By2022,totalhoursworkedexceededtheirpre-COVID-19level(Figurela).Thisrecoverywasdrivenbyastrongbouncebackintheemploymentrate(theextensivemargin)(Figurelb).However,averagehoursworked(theintensivemargin)remainedbelowpre-pandemiclevels(Figurelc).Figure1:TotalHoursWorked（八）,EmploymentRate(b),andAverageHoursWorked(c)(b)(C)Note:Thefigureshowstheaveragehoursworkedofthemedian,25thand75thpercentilecountriesOfEU27countries.Thelineshowsthe2019levelofthemediancountry.Sources:Eurostatandauthors,calculations.Whetherthisdeclineinaveragehoursworkediscyclicalrelatedtothepandemicorothertransitoryforcesorinsteadstructuralmattersforpotentialoutputand(theintensivemarginof)labormarketslackacrossEurope.Averageworkinghoursacrossdevelopedeconomieshavebeenonalong-termdecliningtrendsincethe19thcentury,roughlyhalvingbetween1870and2000inGermanyforexample(Messenger,1.eeandMcCann,2007a).Morebroadly,averageworkinghoursacrossOECDcountriesh