世界银行-科特迪瓦新冠肺炎大流行病的死亡率成本和政策应对（英）-2024.3_市场营销策划_2024.docx

PaUO1.nnValnsoosQ.2-qndPolicyResearchWorkingPaper10731MortalityCostsofandPolicyResponsestotheCOVID-19PandemicinCdted,IvoirePZ'OfnValnsoosQ.2-qndHemannPythagorePierreDotijbuetNdohASbhenSanogoJean-NoelAmantchiGogpuaOpopeOyakaTsbivuilaMatalaAdamaTraoreGastonSo砂。worldBankgroupHealth,NutritionandPopulationGlobalPracticeMarch2024PolicyRESEARCHWorkingPaper10731AbstractCoted,Ivoire,thelargesteconomyintheWestAfricanEconomicandMonetaryrUnion,washitbyCOVID-19,whichclaimedmanylives.ThispaperestimatesCOVID-19mortalitycostsovertimeusingthevalueofastatisticallife.Usingamoreconservativeestimateofthevalueofastatisticallifeincomeelasticityrangingfrom1to1.4,theoverallCOVlD-19mortalitycostsinCotcd,IvoircsincethepandemicrangefromUS$100.4milliontoUS$284.3million.Consideringage-relatedadjustments,a3percentdiscountrate,andavalueofastatisticallifeincomeelastic-ityof1to1.4,theCOVID-19costsrangefromUS$5.4milliontoUSS15.3million.Similarly,theCOVID-19mortalitycostsrangefromUSS6.8milliontoUS$19.3millionwitha5percentdiscountrateandavalueofastatisticallifeincomeelasticityof1to1.4.Moresignificantly,thefindingssuggestthatCOVID-19mortalitycostsstartedtodeclinein2021.Toenhanceprevention,preparedness,andresponsetofuturepandemics,policymakerscouldconsiderallocatingpandemicfundingwithinnationalbudgets.Exploringpotentialpartnershipswithphilanthropicorganizationsandinternationalentitiescouldfurtherenhancedomesticresourcematchingefforts.ThispaperisaproductoftheHealth,NutritionandPopulationGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebatTheauthorsmaybecontactedathdonfbuetworldbank.org.TbcPoiityRese<rcbWoriungPaperSeriesdisseminatesU)efindingofnorkhiprocesstoencouragetheexCban.ofideasaboutda>elopnentissues.Anol)jecti>eoftheseriesisto妒tbefindingoutquickly,eveniftbepresentationsarelessthanfullyf)olisbed.Thepaperscanythenamesoft!)tauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Tbefinding,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareenfirefythose可theauthors.TheydonotnecrssarilyrrprvstrnttbeviewsoftbeInleniationalbankforReconstructionandDevtiopMenl/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganisation/,orthoseoftbeP,xecuth>eDireclcrsoftbeWorldBankortbepvmmentstheyrepresent.ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeamMortalityCostsofandPolicyResponsestotheCOVID-19PandemicinCoted,IvoireHermannPythagorePierreDonfouet1*,NdohAshkenSanogo1Jean-NoelAmantchiGogoua1,OpopeOyakaTshivuilaMatala1,AdamaTraore1,GastonSorgho1lTheWorldBankHealthNutritionandPopulationGlobalPractice,1818HStreet,NWWashington,D.C.20433USA.*Correspondingauthor,semail:hdonfouetworldbank.orgKeywords:COVID-19pandemic,valueOfstatisticallife.JE1.codes:D12,D61,I101. IntroductionSinceitsfirstcaseofCOVID-19,detectedonMarch11,2020,Coted,Ivoirehasexperiencedrecurrentwavesofthepandemic,withthemostrecentendinginJanuary2022.TheresurgenceincaseshasbeendrivenbythespreadofhighlytransmissibleCOVID-19variants,lowCOVID-19vaccinationcoverage,increasingsocialinteractionsandtheinconsistentapplicationofpublichealthmeasures(e.g.,socialdistancing,handwashing,andmaskwearing).Therewere88,064confirmedcasesofCOVID-19betweenJanuary3,2020,andFebruary15,2023(WHO.,2022).ThehighestincidenceofCOVID-19caseswasobservedinDecember2021duetotheOmicronvariant,whilethedeadliestwavewasassociatedwiththespreadoftheDeltavariantbetweenJulyandOctober2021.AsofJanuary18,2024,atotalof835peoplehaddiedasaresultofCOVID-19.AlthoughthisnumberofdeathsmightnotseemhighcomparedtotheUnitedStates(US),whereCOVID-19isestimatedtohavecaused1,161,235deathsasofJanuary18,2024,themortalitycostsinCoted,Ivoiremightbehighforanationthatisstillworkingtobuildastrongandresilienthealthcaresystemandenhanceinclusiveandsustainableeconomicgrowth.Furthermore,sincethepandemicbegan,policymakersinCoted'Ivoirehavelackedevidenceofthelong-termdeathcostsassociatedwithCOVID-19.TheseestimatescouldgivepolicymakersaclearpictureofthemortalitycostsassociatedwithCOVID-19overtimeandhelpthemtakeaforwardapproachtobetterprevent,preparefor,andrespondtofuturepandemics.TheCOVID-19pandemichasspawnedaplethoraofresearcharticlesthatassessitscosts.AccordingtoanestimatebyCutlerandSummers(2020),thetotalcostofthepandemicintheUSisestimatedatmorethan$16trillion,orover90%ofthecountry'sannualgrossdomesticproduct.TheprematuredeathcostamountedtoUSS4.4trillion.InTiirkiye,Gokler&Metinta§(2022)foundthattheprematuredeathcostduetoCOVID-19wasUS$227,396,694.EventhoughthesestudiesshedsomelightonthemortalitycostsassociatedwithCOVID-19,itisnotknownhowthesemortalitycostschangeovertime.1 COVID-19hasbeendescribedinavarietyofwayssinceitsinception.Itwasreferredtoasapandemic,healthcrisis,publichealthemergencyofinternalconcern,anddisaster.Thecurrentstudyusesthebenefit-transfervalueofastatisticallife(VS1.)approachtoestimatetheCOVID-19mortalitycostsovertimeinCoted,Ivoire.Wealsoreviewt