大幅减税对富人的经济影响（英）.docx

OXORDDoWn-Oadedfromh=psacadem6bupbomerrtQe2225396500315bygues-On07MarCh2024Socio-EconomicReview,2022lVol.20,No.21539-559doi:10.1093sermwab061AdvanceAccessPublicationDate:7January2022ArticleArticleTheeconomicconsequencesofmajortaxcutsfortherichDavidHope*andJulian1.imberg)DepartmentofPoliticalEconomy,King'sCollege1.ondon,1.ondonWC2B4PX,UK*Correspondence:david.hopekcl.ac.ukAbstractThelast50yearshasseenadramaticdeclineintaxesontherichacrosstheadvanceddemocracies.Thereisstillferventdebateinbothpoliticalandacademiccircles,however,abouttheeconomicconsequencesofthissweepingchangeintaxpolicy.Thisarticlecontributestothisdebatebyutilizinganewlyconstructedindicatoroftaxesontherichtoidentifyallinstancesofmortaxreductionsontherichin18OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)countriesbetween1965and2015.Wethenestimatetheaverageeffectsofthesemajortaxreformsonkeymacroeconomicaggregates.Wefindtaxcutsfortherichleadtohigherincomeinequalityinboththeshort-andmedium-term.Incontrast,suchreformsdonothaveanysignificanteffectoneconomicgrowthorunemployment.Ourresultsthereforeprovidestrongevidenceagainsttheinfluentialpolitical-economicideathattaxcutsfortherich,trickledown'toboostthewidereconomy.Keywords：taxation,inequality,incomedistribution,economicgrowth,unemploymentJE1.classification:D31personalincome,wealth,andtheirdistributions,E62fiscalpolicy,047empiricalstudiesofeconomicgrowth,aggregateproductivity,cross-untryoutputconvergence1. IntroductionThepasthalfcenturyhasbeenaperiodofsubstantialchangeintaxpolicyintheadvanceddemocracies(Steinmo,2003;KiserandKarceski,2017).AparticularlyprominentpartofthistransformationhasbeenthedramaticfallintaxesontherichacrosstheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)countries(Ganghof2006;Hopeand1.imberg,2021).Whilethissweepingpolicychangehasbeenwelldocumented,itsconsequencesfortheeconomyarelesswellunderstood.Proponentsofthetaxcutsfortherichoftenarguefortheirbeneficialeffectsoneconomicperformance.Thislineofreasoning,focusingonefficiencygainsandtheremovalOfbehavioraldistortions,hasbeencentraltotheargumentsmadeforseveralmajortaxreformsintheUSAVTheAuthor(三)2022.PublishedbyOxfordUniversityPressandtheSocietyfortheAdvancementofSocio-Economics.ThisisanOpenAccessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreatiVs:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by-n4.0),whichpermitsnon-commercialre-use,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalworkispropertycited.Forcommercialre-use,pleasecontactjournals.permissions(AuerbachandSlemrod,1997;Bartels,2005;GaleandSamwick,2017).Therearefewmacro-levelempiricalstudiesexploringtherelationshipbetweentaxesontherichandeconomicperformance,however,andtheevidencewedohaveismixed.Whilesomestudiesfindhighertopmarginalincometaxratesandtaxprogressivityadverselyaffecteconomicgrowth(PadovanoandGalli,2002;Gemmelleta1.,2014),anumberofotherstudies11ndnosignificantassociation(1.eeandGordon,2005;Angelopoulosetal.,2007;P汰ettyetal.,2014).Ontheothersideofthedebate,manyopponentsoftaxcutsforthericharguethattheysimplyfurtherconcentrateincomeinthehandsoftheaffluent.ThepioneeringworkofPikettyandco-authorschartingtheevolutionoftopincomesoverthecourseofthe20thcenturyhasshownthatreductionsintaxprogressivityinrecentdecadeshavegonehand-in-handwithsoaringincomeinequality,especiallyintheAnglo-Saxoncountries(AtkinsonandPiketty,2007;Alvaredoetal.,2013;Piketty,2014).Thisissupportedbyevidencefromcross-countrypanelstudiesthathavefoundthatlowertaxesontherich,especiallytopmarginalincometaxrates,arestronglyassociatedwithrisingtopincomeshares(Roineetal.,2009;VolschoandKelly,2012;Pikettyetal.,2014;Huberetal.,2019).Giventhelackofconsensusinexistingempiricalanalyzesandthedifficultiesofmakingcausalinferencesfrommacro-levelpaneldataanalyzes,itremainsanopenempiricalquestionhowcuttingtaxesontherichaffectseconomicoutcomes.Webelievethequestionisbestansweredbylookingattheeffectsofmajortaxcutspackages,asthestoryoftaxingtherichintheadvanceddemocraciesoverthepast50yearsisoneofdiscreteandstarkchangesinpolicy.Forexample,RonaldReaganimplementedtwomajorpackagesoftaxcutsfortherichinhistimeintheWhiteHouse,onein1981andanotherin1986.Asimilarpatternoflarge,infrequenttaxcutscharacterizedThatcher'staxreformsintheUK,aswellasreformtrajectoriesinmanyotheradvanceddemocracies(seeSection3).Focusingontheeffectsofindividualreformsalsoallowsustoapplyanewstatisticalapproachforcausalinferenceinobservationalstudiesthatappliesanovelmatchingmethodtopooledtimeseriesdata.Thisisparticularlypertinentinthiscase,asthereisalargeliteratureonthepowerofrichvotersandorganizedbusinessintereststoshapepublicpolicies(includingtaxpolicies)intheirfavor(Gilens,2005;Bartels,2009;HackerandPierson,2010;Svallfors,2016;EmmeneggerandMarx,2019),whichsuggestsreversecausalitycouldbeamajorissueinempiricalstudieslackingaclearidentificationstrategy.Thereareonlyahandfulofexistingmacro-levelstudiesexploringtheeconomicconsequencesofspecifictaxcutsfortherichandtheirexternalvalidi